El mercado inmobiliario pospandemia

Las claves pasarán por la calidad de construcción, los amenities y especialmente por los balcones, patios, jardines o todo espacio que permita moverse al aire libre. Más allá de la cuarentena de casi tres meses …

mercado inmobiliario

Las claves pasarán por la calidad de construcción, los amenities y especialmente por los balcones, patios, jardines o todo espacio que permita moverse al aire libre.

Más allá de la cuarentena de casi tres meses implementada en nuestro país, en Europa y Asia ya se comienza a hablar de la pospandemia, y se comienzan a ver los cambios que enfrentará el mundo en los próximos meses y años. Se perfilan sectores ganadores, principalmente en la industria del software, y perdedores, como el transporte, turismo y esparcimiento.

Primeramente podemos inferir que el mundo, que marchaba hacia una segura globalización, hoy se fragmentó en dos: una en avance acelerado y otra en retroceso. El futuro parece ir a una globalización “virtual”, en el sentido en que debemos mantener, por ejemplo, reuniones y hasta celebraciones digitales con personas sin movernos de nuestra casa. Y en contra de una globalización “real”: viajamos menos y comerciamos menos.

En el real estate, si trascendemos la crisis del actual binomio cuarentena-default, que castigó todos los activos, y nos desplazamos hacia un país normalizado, se podría inferir que también habrá ganadores y perdedores. Aprendimos que no hay que ir a trabajar para poder trabajar, ni ir de compras para poder comprar. El trabajo presente (y futuro) ya no implicará necesariamente viajar a “la oficina”. Ni a la avenida principal de nuestro barrio, o al shopping center. Estos sectores, comercial y oficinas, quedarán muy golpeados con la Post Pandemia.

El turismo también quedará golpeado, pero las vacaciones difícilmente puedan hacerse por “zoom”. Por lo que es de esperar que se recupere en un plazo de 12 a 18 meses, cuando vaya desapareciendo las restricciones y los cierres de fronteras, y sobre todo diluyéndose el miedo al contagio. Este sector a largo plazo quedaría sin mayores cambios.

También hay un claro ganador. En la pospandemia, la gente va a pasar mucho más tiempo en su casa que antes de la Pandemia. Esto permitirá bajar el consumo en transporte, ropa y demás, que podrá volcarse a mayor posibilidad de compra de viviendas. La calidad de vida pasará, fundamentalmente, por la vivienda. Quizá no tanto por la ubicación, porque no habrá tanta necesidad de desplazarse. Pero sí por la superficie, la calidad de construcción, los ammenities y especialmente por los balcones, patios, jardines o todo espacio que permita moverse al aire libre, y ver verde y cielo. Probablemente haya mucho valor futuro en casas en barrios cerrados, complejos residenciales con mayor amenities, y hasta casas y PHs en el área metropolitana.

También hay que prestar atención a cuáles son los inmuebles vinculados a los nuevos canales de comercialización. Si los locales van a tener menos potencial de suba, porque la gente compre a través de plataformas digitales, seguramente los depósitos y centros de logística tengan un fuerte crecimiento a tener en cuenta.

Para proteger y hacer crecer el patrimonio, es esencial conocer los fundamentales que guiarán el comportamiento futuro de las personas, e invertir en consecuencia.

(*) Director financiero de Grupo Chomer

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